The uncertainty of changepoints in time series

Analysis concerning time series exhibiting changepoints have predominantly focused on detection and estimation. However, changepoint estimates such as their number and location are subject to uncertainty which is often not captured explicitly, or requires sampling long latent vectors in existing methods. This thesis proposes efficient, flexible methodologies in quantifying the uncertainty of changepoints. The core proposed methodology of this thesis models time series and changepoints under a Hidden Markov Model framework. This methodology combines existing work on exact changepoint distributions conditional on model parameters with Sequential Monte Carlo samplers to account for parameter uncertainty. The combination of the two provides posterior distributions of changepoint characteristics in light of parameter uncertainty. This thesis also presents a methodology in approximating the posterior of the number of underlying states in a Hidden Markov Model. Consequently, model selection for Hidden Markov Models is possible. This methodology employs the use of Sequential Monte Carlo samplers, such that no additional computational costs are incurred from the existing use of these samplers. The final part of this thesis considers time series in the wavelet domain, as opposed to the time domain. The motivation for this transformation is the occurrence of autocovariance changepoints in time series. Time domain modelling approaches are somewhat limited for such types of changes, with approximations often taking place. The wavelet domain relaxes these modelling limitations, such that autocovariance changepoints can be considered more readily. The proposed methodology develops a joint density for multiple processes in the wavelet domain which can then be embedded within a Hidden Markov Model framework. Quantifying the uncertainty of autocovariance changepoints is thus possible. These methodologies will be motivated by datasets from Econometrics, Neuroimaging and Oceanography

Room-temperature cycling of metal fluoride electrodes: Liquid electrolytes for high-energy fluoride ion cells

Fluoride ion batteries are potential “next-generation” electrochemical storage devices that offer high energy density. At present, such batteries are limited to operation at high temperatures because suitable fluoride ion–conducting electrolytes are known only in the solid state. We report a liquid fluoride ion–conducting electrolyte with high ionic conductivity, wide operating voltage, and robust chemical stability based on dry tetraalkylammonium fluoride salts in ether solvents. Pairing this liquid electrolyte with a copper–lanthanum trifluoride (Cu@LaF_3) core-shell cathode, we demonstrate reversible fluorination and defluorination reactions in a fluoride ion electrochemical cell cycled at room temperature. Fluoride ion–mediated electrochemistry offers a pathway toward developing capacities beyond that of lithium ion technology

New dosing schedules of dasatinib for CML and adverse event management

Resistance to imatinib in patients with chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) or Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia (Ph+ ALL) has emerged as a significant clinical issue. Dasatinib is a tyrosine kinase inhibitor that has 325-fold greater in vitro activity against native BCR-ABL (breakpoint cluster region-Abelson leukemia virus) compared with imatinib and can overcome primary (intrinsic) and secondary (acquired) imatinib resistance. Here, we review the clinical profile of dasatinib in imatinib-resistant and -intolerant patients and share clinical approaches for managing adverse events (AEs) to ensure maximum patient benefit. References were obtained through literature searches on PubMed as well as from the Proceedings of Annual Meetings of the American Society of Clinical Oncology, the American Society of Hematology, and European Hematology Association. Phase II and III studies of dasatinib in patients with imatinib-resistant or -intolerant CML in any phase or Ph+ ALL were selected for discussion. Dasatinib is currently indicated for the treatment of patients with imatinib-resistant or -intolerant CML or Ph+ ALL. AEs associated with dasatinib are typically mild to moderate, and are usually resolved with temporary treatment interruption and/or dose adjustments. A Phase III dose optimization study showed that in patients with chronic phase (CP) CML, 100 mg once-daily dasatinib improves the safety profile, particularly pleural effusion and thrombocytopenia, while maintaining efficacy compared with the previously recommended dose of 70 mg twice-daily. Dasatinib has a manageable safety profile. For patients with CP CML, a new recommended starting dose of 100 mg once daily has recently been approved. The recommended dose for patients with advanced CML or Ph+ ALL remains 70 mg twice daily

Compressed representation of a partially defined integer function over multiple arguments

In OLAP (OnLine Analitical Processing) data are analysed in an n-dimensional cube. The cube may be represented as a partially defined function over n arguments. Considering that often the function is not defined everywhere, we ask: is there a known way of representing the function or the points in which it is defined, in a more compact manner than the trivial one

Known and unknown requirements in healthcare

We report experience in requirements elicitation of domain knowledge from experts in clinical and cognitive neurosciences. The elicitation target was a causal model for early signs of dementia indicated by changes in user behaviour and errors apparent in logs of computer activity. A Delphi-style process consisting of workshops with experts followed by a questionnaire was adopted. The paper describes how the elicitation process had to be adapted to deal with problems encountered in terminology and limited consensus among the experts. In spite of the difficulties encountered, a partial causal model of user behavioural pathologies and errors was elicited. This informed requirements for configuring data- and text-mining tools to search for the specific data patterns. Lessons learned for elicitation from experts are presented, and the implications for requirements are discussed as “unknown unknowns”, as well as configuration requirements for directing data-/text-mining tools towards refining awareness requirements in healthcare applications

Review of nanomaterials in dentistry: interactions with the oral microenvironment, clinical applications, hazards, and benefits.

Interest in the use of engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) as either nanomedicines or dental materials/devices in clinical dentistry is growing. This review aims to detail the ultrafine structure, chemical composition, and reactivity of dental tissues in the context of interactions with ENMs, including the saliva, pellicle layer, and oral biofilm; then describes the applications of ENMs in dentistry in context with beneficial clinical outcomes versus potential risks. The flow rate and quality of saliva are likely to influence the behavior of ENMs in the oral cavity, but how the protein corona formed on the ENMs will alter bioavailability, or interact with the structure and proteins of the pellicle layer, as well as microbes in the biofilm, remains unclear. The tooth enamel is a dense crystalline structure that is likely to act as a barrier to ENM penetration, but underlying dentinal tubules are not. Consequently, ENMs may be used to strengthen dentine or regenerate pulp tissue. ENMs have dental applications as antibacterials for infection control, as nanofillers to improve the mechanical and bioactive properties of restoration materials, and as novel coatings on dental implants. Dentifrices and some related personal care products are already available for oral health applications. Overall, the clinical benefits generally outweigh the hazards of using ENMs in the oral cavity, and the latter should not prevent the responsible innovation of nanotechnology in dentistry. However, the clinical safety regulations for dental materials have not been specifically updated for ENMs, and some guidance on occupational health for practitioners is also needed. Knowledge gaps for future research include the formation of protein corona in the oral cavity, ENM diffusion through clinically relevant biofilms, and mechanistic investigations on how ENMs strengthen the tooth structure

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1–4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0–8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421–723) to 853 million (642–1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6–9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4–7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782–3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279–1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082–3583] vs 2336 [2154–2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943–3630] vs 5643 [5057–6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The IceCube Data Acquisition System: Signal Capture, Digitization, and Timestamping

IceCube is a km-scale neutrino observatory under construction at the South Pole with sensors both in the deep ice (InIce) and on the surface (IceTop). The sensors, called Digital Optical Modules (DOMs), detect, digitize and timestamp the signals from optical Cherenkov-radiation photons. The DOM Main Board (MB) data acquisition subsystem is connected to the central DAQ in the IceCube Laboratory (ICL) by a single twisted copper wire-pair and transmits packetized data on demand. Time calibration is maintained throughout the array by regular transmission to the DOMs of precisely timed analog signals, synchronized to a central GPS-disciplined clock. The design goals and consequent features, functional capabilities, and initial performance of the DOM MB, and the operation of a combined array of DOMs as a system, are described here. Experience with the first InIce strings and the IceTop stations indicates that the system design and performance goals have been achieved.Comment: 42 pages, 20 figures, submitted to Nuclear Instruments and Methods

Evidence for the 125 GeV Higgs boson decaying to a pair of tau leptons

Peer reviewe